Risk definition (UNESCO, 1972), of whatever nature, is the probability that an event occurs in a specific area in a certain time interval (hazard) per the expected socio-economic damage. It clearly expresses how it must consider the interactions between psychological factors and social and economic activities that contribute to a complex and articulated representation of risk at the level of the individual citizen, communities, economic subjects, and political decision-makers.

The project's main objective is to reduce the gap between the objective physical parameters of the probabilistic risk analysis (statistically estimated risk) and the subjective parameters of the perception of risk (subjectively estimated risk). This main goal will be achieved by developing a model that will define guidelines about good practices to prepare citizens, economic subjects, and decision-makers for possible future natural/environmental crises, to minimize the gap between statistically and subjectively estimated risk. We intend to propose adequate risk communication strategies considering human diversity, also in terms of literacy levels or cognitive disabilities; heuristic processes, and the preconceptions widely involved in judgment estimates and operational decisions for formulating adequate nudging techniques.

The project is based on three cross-integrated work packages (WPs): 1) probability analysis of selected hazards, considered individually or together (multihazard scenario); 2) perception assessment of potential risk by the decision-makers and stakeholders; 3) creation of a communicative model for better risk representation to the decision-makers and stakeholders.

WP1 deals with the probabilistic analysis of three types of natural and environmental risks, which are perceived differently by the individual citizen and society. They can be taken as examples of: i) over-perception (i.e., the risk related to nuclear waste deposits); ii) average perception (i.e., flood risks); iii) unperceived (i.e., risk of interruption of essential services related to volcanic ash dispersion in the distal area). WP2 deals with subjective risk assessment and evaluating the gap between statistical and subject estimates. It will represent the baseline for WP3, in which new techniques of communication will be experimented to reduce the biases within the entire decision-making process. WP3 deals with experiments using current and newly developed media and groundbreaking communicative techniques both for decision-makers (e.g., Civil Protection, Municipality, Region) and lay population, especially those people that need more support to access and understand information.