The ANTILIPSI project successfully bridged the gap between the probabilistic hazard assessment (statistically estimated risk) and the subjective risk perception in multi-risk settings. Organized into three cross-integrated Work Packages (WPs), the research activities yielded the following definitive outcomes:
WP1 - Probabilistic Risk Analysis: For flood hazards, highly detailed Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) obtained via drones and Structure from Motion techniques allowed the refinement of definitive flood risk maps for the Marconia (proximal) and Ferrandina (distal) areas. For volcanic ash dispersion, distinct methodological approaches were applied to finalize the exceedance probabilities of tephra fallout thickness, tailored to the specific eruptive dynamics of the targeted volcanic systems. For the Neapolitan volcanoes (Nola and Pisticci), the hazard assessment was based on a fully-probabilistic workflow utilizing a Bayesian procedure to quantify the mean annual frequency of exceeding critical tephra loads over a 50-year exposure period, synthesizing multi-source hazard results and historical meteorological data. Conversely, for the Etna volcano (Catania and Siracusa), probabilistic mapping was achieved by integrating well-characterized Strong Plume Scenarios (SPS) and Weak Plume Scenarios (WPS), following the systematic analysis of over 100 distinct lava fountain events. Finally, for natural radioactivity, gamma radiation rates were acquired, quantifying activity concentrations in the proximal La Solfatara-Pisciarelli system and the distal Bari control area.
WP2 - Subjective Risk Assessment: A multidimensional survey was administered to 2,200 individuals across proximal and distal exposure contexts via CATI/CAWI methodologies,. The multi-risk behavioural analysis identified crucial, hazard-specific psychological barriers. For volcanic ash, chronic exposure in the Etna area induces "hazard normalization", whereas geographical distance from Vesuvius generates a "distal shadow effect". A "preparedness paradox" emerged in both Vesuvius proximal and Etna distal areas, characterized by high theoretical awareness but low operational readiness. For natural radioactivity, a "threat decoupling" mechanism was detected, showing high passive reliance on institutions despite severe knowledge deficits. Furthermore, Research Unit 3 (RU3) administered adapted Easy-to-Read (EtR) questionnaires to vulnerable populations (e.g., individuals with cognitive disabilities and migratory backgrounds), revealing low self-efficacy and a strong emotional component (fear) within these groups.
WP3 - Communicative Model Development: Based on the empirical findings, actionable guidelines were formulated to transition from uniform communication strategies to context-specific Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) policies. Inclusive protocols utilizing the EtR methodology were developed in collaboration with local associations (such as Uniamoci Onlus), replacing abstract information with highly concrete, action-oriented procedures. This approach is designed to mitigate emotional paralysis, foster practical self-efficacy, and ensure the full accessibility of Civil Protection directives for all societal segments.